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CPI调控需引进改革思维
[ 2011-3-9 12:02:00 | By:
杨远锋
]
十一届全国人大四次会议3月4日上午在人民大会堂举行新闻发布会。大会发言人李肇星透露，2011年CPI的预期调控目标设为4%左右，这反映了价格变动趋势，又表明了政府控制价格过快上涨的决心。
设定CPI预期调控警戒线，既是今年宏观调控确立以防通胀为首要任务后的目标细化，也是给民众的一剂安心丸。价格的形成不仅是供需关系决定的结果，也是心理预期的结果。就近年来的情况看，预期对于价格指数的上扬作用越来越大。在总产能存在严重过剩的情况下，价格水平为何仍然从去年中旬起在市场呈现普遍性的持续上涨态势？这不是因为供需对价格的决定权失效，也不仅是货币超量发行和热钱炒作的结果，还包括预期过度的因素。
现在，货币政策工具全都用于收回流动性，对于热钱的监管力度也大大增强。因此，加强对于通胀预期的管理也是势所必然。CPI警戒线有助于民众对于全年价格走势有一个较为清晰的认识，从而避免投资和消费的判断失误。
相对于2010年3%的调控目标，今年的4%调高了一个百分点。这一方面表明物价形势还处于较为严峻的阶段，另一方面也表明对于通胀的构成因素有了更为真切的认识。
在传统的通胀因素之外，本轮的物价上涨增加了一个新的推手，即成本的上升。这既表现为原材料价格的上涨，也表现为内地人力成本的上涨。对于原材料价格，在缺乏定价权和足够的议价能力的情况下，属于不可控制的上涨；对于人力成本的上涨，则属于不能控制的上涨。如果过多地采取行政手段控制人力成本上涨，不仅等于人为迟滞劳动力价格必然到来的上升，而且将波及许多中低收入劳动力的生活水平，从而回到“菜贵伤市民，菜贱伤农民”的老路上去，从而陷入两难。
最能对冲预期的还是预期。如果民众对于收入上涨的预期超过对于物价上涨的预期，加之调控工具的准确使用，那么物价总水平就可控制在合理水平。因此，在管理通胀的同时，还需要引进其他手段。当前最应做的是通过合理的收入分配改革，切实提高民众的抗通胀能力——这才是最有力的防通胀手段。
□徐立凡
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原创
[
2016-9-6 19:05:26
| By:
原创(游客)
]
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[
2016-9-28 18:42:24
| By:
原创(游客)
]
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[
2016-9-30 13:19:40
| By:
原创(游客)
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Re:在漫画中识别身边的违章
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2016-10-8 14:59:38
| By:
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]
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Re:在漫画中识别身边的违章
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2016-10-11 3:37:59
| By:
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]
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Re:在漫画中识别身边的违章
[
2016-10-11 13:48:16
| By:
mquyc(游客)
]
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Re:在漫画中识别身边的违章
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2016-10-12 19:48:08
| By:
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2016-10-14 15:39:25
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Re:在漫画中识别身边的违章
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2016-10-15 19:47:51
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Re:在漫画中识别身边的违章
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2016-10-17 3:32:10
| By:
podhk(游客)
]
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Re:在漫画中识别身边的违章
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2016-10-17 23:21:02
| By:
ybsux(游客)
]
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Re:在漫画中识别身边的违章
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2016-10-19 20:21:55
| By:
gvacg(游客)
]
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Re:在漫画中识别身边的违章
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2016-10-20 17:11:36
| By:
dhlpt(游客)
]
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Re:在漫画中识别身边的违章
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2016-10-22 16:07:40
| By:
rwzfi(游客)
]
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Re:在漫画中识别身边的违章
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2017-3-4 14:34:37
| By:
hfvya(游客)
]
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