![](/blog/UploadFiles/2012-2/1303360578.jpg)
从航空安全发展的历程来看,在航空业发展初期,由于飞机设备比较简陋,机场设施比较原始,运行规章标准程序比较缺乏,安全管理刚刚起步,发动机、机械、电子、导航、附件等可靠性不高,常常发生故障,导致飞行事故率居高不下。而随着科技进步和航空设备等硬件逐渐改善,人为因素导致事故发生又上升为主要原因,占近80%。其中,飞行侥幸心理所带来的消极影响不容轻视。
侥幸心理的表现
飞行侥幸心理,表现为飞行员认为事故只会发生在别人身上,而自己绝不会这么倒霉。统计表明,有侥幸心理倾向的飞行员更容易遭遇事故。因为他们不大重视未雨绸缪,不会积极、主动地去实施事故预防准备工作。在实际飞行中,他们的安全警醒度比较低,对导致事故的蛛丝马迹和苗头信息视而不见,更不会见微知著、举一反三,白白丧失掉最为宝贵的故障处置机会。
具体来说,飞行侥幸心理表现为:
一是以冷漠或者看笑话的心态,对待飞行事故或者身边其他飞行员发生的不安全事件。面对这些付出了沉重代价甚至带血的事故或者事件,讥笑讽刺多于吸取教训,冷漠淡然多于关注思索。殊不知,航空安全就是从无数次血淋淋的事故中吸取教训并渐渐提高的。面对鲜活的不安全典型案例,如果不深入剖析,切实吸取教训,如何能避免同类问题重复发生?又怎么能保证类似问题不会找上门来呢?
二是自我假设飞机、天气、机场等运行要素预期一切正常。经常抱有这种虚无而理想化假设的人,对航班的预先准备,跳不出走马观花、大而化之的“牢笼”;在飞行中,不是聚精会神地监控和驾驶飞机,而很有可能是天马行空、浮想联翩,甚至睡眼矇眬。殊不知,航空系统是一个非常复杂的运行系统,仅一架飞机的各系统和零部件就有近百万之多。假如某一系统有10个相关联的设备,每件设备的可靠性为99%,其整体可靠性则下降为90.44%。也就是说,这其中9.36%的不可靠很有可能就是诱发飞机故障的初始因素。何况一个航空系统,其构成哪只10个零部件呀?
三是飞行中缺乏应有的警惕心。比如,对航路备降场、航路最低安全高度等关注不够,以为目的地天气符合标准,就不用操心其他事情。实际上,在巡航过程中也会出现需要立即改航到最近的合适机场着陆的紧急情况。如果事先没有准备,仓促应战,必将惊慌失措。特别是目前,飞行员紧缺,大多数航空公司都按“两人制”最低标准配置飞行员,副驾驶往往航线运行经验不足,难以从容应对这种突发情况。
四是存在藐视规章或超越标准的倾向。有的飞行员常常顶在规章标准的上限运行,偶尔还会跑到规章标准的限定之外试试,自恃技术高超,以为完全可以应对大的飞行偏差。比如,进近至决断高度,出现超过着陆标准的方向或位置偏差,心存侥幸的机组会选择继续着陆,而不是按要求立即复飞。
五是高估自己。凡是侥幸心理倾向比较明显的飞行员,对自己真正掌握的机型知识、航空理论、运行政策、飞行技术等没有一个较为客观的理性评估,不大清楚自己的弱项在哪里,往往高估自己。
预防为主,远离侥幸
飞行侥幸心理的最大危害就是,它会随时随地挖飞行安全的“墙脚”!持有侥幸心理者,应该明白两个道理:一是现代飞机再先进、再智能化,仍然存在发生故障的概率。其系统和性能一旦遭遇严重降级,就会退化为“原始飞机”。这个时候,飞机设计师的设计理念就是要飞行员像第二次世界大战王牌飞行员那样,娴熟地去操纵简陋的飞机,按原始仪表甚至地标罗盘进行领航,凭过硬的基本驾驶技术操纵带有严重故障的飞机平安着陆。二是保证飞行安全最伟大、最成功的理念,就是那句老掉牙的“安全第一,预防为主”。
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